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Consider the following scenario analysis:
Rate of Return
Scenario Probability Stocks Bonds
Recession 0.2 -7% 15%
Normal economy 0.7 16 7
Boom 0.1 25 6
Assume a portfolio with weights of 0.60 in stocks and 0.40 in bonds.
a) What is the rate of return on the portfolio in each scenario?
b) What are the expected return and standard deviation of the portfolio?
c) Would you prefer to invest in the portfolio, in stocks only, or in bonds only? Explain the benefit of diversification.
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