Reference no: EM133195704 , Length: Word count: 1000 words

Assignment Problem:

You are expected to investigate the statistical issues surrounding the topic detailed below and then prepare a short report on your findings. This report should describe the scientific background to the scientific issue, selecting a couple of examples to illustrate your main points. Your focus should be on explaining the quantitative challenges around the issue, any data used and modelling (e.g. in your selected examples) and how the results are communicated.

You should then also write a brief executive summary aimed at a policy maker or non-scientist. Some resources are provided, but you can investigate and research other related sources if you wish.

You should structure your critique as suggested below, introducing the problem, summarizing the evidence (mentioning in particular what data are available, how those data were collected (e.g. from a survey or experimental study, focusing on the nature of the statistical modelling that has been carried out), what the statistical challenges are, while remembering that as you write the critique, you are writing for a general scientific audience.

You can choose to write your report on either of the topics below:

Topic 1: Uncertainty

In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report which explored the potential outcomes of 1.5 degree in global temperature. In the aftermath of this report, there has been renewed interest in the issues surrounding uncertainty, how it is quantified and communicated especially with regard to climate change predictions.  The IPPC, for its assessment reports has provided guidelines for authors but in this critique, you should review the literature on uncertainty quantification and communication (and visualization), identifying any remaining challenges.

Topic 2: Distance sampling

Distance sampling is a survey technique used to collect data on wild animal populations in the context of conservation and wildlife management. In distance sampling data are collected along (point or line) transects, where the observer moves along the transect and attempts to collect data (eg animal sightings). Depending on the properties and numbers of animals - and on the distance to the observer - the animals might or might not be detected. Distance sampling methods take detection probabilities into account when estimating population sizes based on distance sampling data.

Your critique should research the topic of distance sampling, focusing on statistical challenges in modelling data from distance sampling. You should identify two examples to illustrate your challenges.