Evaluating an experimental oncology treatment

Reference no: EM13820310

Hell's Pass Hospital is evaluating an experimental oncology treatment. The treatment is currently under review for Medicare reimbursement and legislative experts believe the treatment has a 70% chance of receiving approval for

Medicare reimbursement. If the the procedure is approved it has an expected volume of 110 procedures per year and only 40 procedures per year if not approved. Each procedure generates $30,000 in revenues and has $10,000

in variable costs. The price does not depend on approval, just the quantity. The equipment is $5m and would last for five years but may be scrapped for $3m at the end of year 1.Hell's Pass Hospital is a not-for-profit institution with an 8% cost of capital; however, the CFO recomends using a 12% discount rate as the project is relatively risky. Note that expected volume will be 40 during year 1 and would then rise to 110 during years 2-5 only if the procedure is approved.

Upfront costs	$5,000,000
1-year scrap value	$3,000,000
Revenues per procedure	$30,000
Costs per procedure	$10,000
Volume \| approval	110
Volume \| no approval	40
Project cost of capital	12%
Corporate cost of capital	8%

Questions

a) Evaluate whether investment now (time=0) is financially acceptable without using options.

b) Now evaluate the project allowing for abandonment at the end of year 1.

c) Can you suggest a different option that might be a better strategy for this scenario?

Reference no: EM13820310

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