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The Karns Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of land that the company owns. The company estimates the project would cost $14 million today. Karns estimates that, once drilled, the oil will generate positive net cash flows of $6.44 million a year at the end of each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairly confident about its cash flow forecast, in 2 years it will have more information about the local geology and about the price of oil. Karns estimates that if it waits 2 years then the project would cost $17 million. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, then there is a 90% chance that the net cash flows would be $7.28 million a year for 4 years and a 10% chance that they would be $3.92 million a year for 4 years. Assume all cash flows are discounted at 11%.
If the company chooses to drill today, what is the project's net present value?
A negative value should be entered with a negative sign. Enter your answer in millions. For example, an answer of $1.2 million should be entered as 1.2, not 1,200,000. Round your answer to two decimal places.
To make the valuation process more realistic, you’ve decided to switch the valuation method for a project to a “mid-year” approach
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