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Question: Prior probabilities are often educated guesses at best, so it is worth performing a sensitivity analysis on their values. However, you must make sure that they are varied so that all probabilities are nonnegative and sum to 1. For the Acme problem, perform the following sensitivity analyses on the three prior probabilities and comment on the results.
a. Vary the probability of a great national market in a one-way sensitivity analysis from 0 to 0.6 in increments of 0.1. Do this in such a way that the probabilities of the two other outcomes, fair and awful, stay in the same ratio as they are currently, 7 to 4.
b. Vary the probabilities of a great and a fair national market independently in a two-way sensitivity analysis. You can choose the ranges over which these vary, but you must ensure that the three prior probabilities continue to be nonnegative and sum to 1. (For example, you couldn't choose ranges where the probabilities of great and fair are 0.6 and 0.5.)
1. When a movie producer decides whether to produce a major motion picture, the main question is how much revenue the movie will generate. Draw a decision tree of this situ ation, assuming that there is only one fundamental objective, to maximize ..
Actually, late movers can be very good competitors in late stage markets or competitive situations. It just takes a different suite of skills to produce good performance in markets that are moving toward price competition.
suppose that the percentage annual return you obtain when you invest a dollar in gold or the stock market is dependent
Scores on a test have a mean of 73 and Q3 is 81. The scores have a distribution that is approximately normal. Find P90.
the national freshman-to-sophmore retention rate has held steady at 74. a certain college has 483 of 607 freshman
1.) A doctor claims that the standard deviation of systolic blood pressure is 12 mmHg. A random sample of 24 patients found a standard deviation of 14mmHg. Assume the variable is normally distributed. At a=0.01, what are the critical chi square..
a washington post-abc news poll found that 72 of people are concerned about the possibility that their personal records
When calculating all the values of a binomial distribution, the work can usually be simplified by first calculating b(0; n, θ ) and then using the recursion formula
We have been informed that the stock has gone up 20%. What is the probability of a rise or fall in the GDP?
Find the probability that the number of cars sold tomorrow will be between two and four (both inclusive).- Find the cumulative distribution function of the number of cars sold per day.
In each case, explain whether the experiment was a matched-pair design, a block design, or neither.- Explain whether each of the following experiments was single-blind, double-blind, or neither.
A hypothesis test is carried out using α = 0.01 the level of significance, and H0 cannot be rejected. What is the most accurate statement we can make about the p-value for this test?
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