Evaluate model performance in terms of forecasting

Assignment Help Basic Statistics
Reference no: EM132519737

MIS171 Business Analytics - Deakin University

Learning Outcome 1: Apply quantitative reasoning skills to analyse business problems.

Learning Outcome 2: Create data- driven/fact-based solutions to complex business scenarios.

Learning Outcome 3: Implement contemporary data analysis tools to analyse business performance.

General Description / Requirements -

This is an individual assignment and it focuses on materials presented up to and including Week 9.

To complete the assignment you should:

- Analyse the dataset to answer the specific questions presented to you during the online test (see the scenario below);

- Interpret the results, and draw conclusions.

Once you have done this, you will have the necessary output (i.e., data analysis , related summary information , and relevant visualisations) to complete the online test . The test contains fifteen (15) randomly allocated multiple- choice questions related to your data analysis, its interpretation, and your subsequent conclusions. The assignment uses the file MIS171- 2020- T 1- A 3 .xlsx which can be downloaded from CloudDeakin.

Scenario - The Leonard's is a Korean restaurant chain founded in 2017 that specialises in Korean fried chicken and beer. Leonar d's has three branches in Australia (Melbourne, Sydney, and Canberra). Their product range includes different types of fried chicken, Korean rice, burgers, salads, beer and beverages, and desserts.

You are Anthony Mcpel, a business analyst who works for the Leonard's in their Research and Analysis department. You have received an email from the Head of Analytics, Nimish Rayan, asking to perform some data analysis on a dataset provided to you. The email making this request alongside some guidelines (in blue) is presented below. Consider these comments carefully.

The senior management team is awaiting reports on the following projects:

1. Project 1: Leonard's customers' spend analysis

The data set includes a random sample of 400 Leonard's customers. Build a multiple regression model to predict the amount spent per transaction. Your model should provide insights into what factors influence spent amount per transaction as well as the ability to predict spent per transaction for various scenarios.

For this analysis, you will need to build a multiple regression model using Spend per transaction as the dependent variable. You should follow the model building process introduced in the lecture and tutorial. To select variables to include in the model, start with transforming categorical variables into dummy variables. When transforming city into dummy variables, consider Sydney as the baseline category; meaning the created dummy variables for city should only include Melbourne (Yes and No), and Canberra (Yes and No). Then, create scatter diagrams and calculate relevant model summary coefficients. Afterwards, run the multiple regression analysis and assess the model for overall significance (F test with alpha set at 0.05). In the next step(s), if the overall model is found to be significant, in a stepwise fashion, remove variables that are least likely to be contributing to any significant change in the dependent variable one at a time (if there are any), by conducting a series of t -tests with alpha set at 0.05.

2. Project 2: Leonard's profit analysis

Data on Leonard's monthly sales from January 2 018 to March 2020 is provided. Leonard's management team is interested in forecasting profit, as they believe there is a time-based pattern in the sales values. Implement a proper forecasting model to address this request and provide your interpretation.

For this study, you need to consider several forecasting models and evaluate model performance in terms of forecasting accuracy and model fit. You should consider the following:

(a) Both 3 and 5 periods centred moving average models.

(b) Fitting linear, exponential, logarithmic, polynomial (order 2), and power trend lines to the original data.

(c) What do the errors say about the usefulness of the forecasting models?

(d) What are the R2 values of the models?

(e) What would be the forecasted profit for the next nine -time period s (April 2020 to December 2020) using each of the models you have built?

Attachment:- Business Analytics Assignment Files.rar

Reference no: EM132519737

Questions Cloud

Describe ways companies can shorten cash conversion cycle : What are three factors that, when added together, equal days' inventory (inventory conversion period) for a typical manufacturing company.
What are the potential problems that a company may face : What are the potential problems that a company may face if it offers a warranty?
Amounts and percentages of total income are received : Construct a Lorenz curve for this five-person economy. What amounts and percentages of total income are received by each quintile?
What bid would maximize your expected value : What bid would maximize your expected value from this auction? Explain why and how you decided on this bid.
Evaluate model performance in terms of forecasting : Evaluate model performance in terms of forecasting accuracy and model fit - What would be the forecasted profit for the next nine -time period
How is capital the lifeblood of a business : How is capital the lifeblood of a business? How does our capital needs change over time? Why is it important to have a solid grasp
Contract for purchase of automobile : Define the elements of a legal contract using examples from the scenario where applicable. Decide whether or not there was a contract for purchase of automobile
How mulawyer comparch does a minimum wage worker earn a week : In 2016, the Florida minimum wage is $8.05 per hour. By contrast the average earnings in Florida in 2016 are about $24.25 per hour and certain highly
Discuss which one engages on competitive prices : Which business do you think engages in personal service and which one engages on competitive prices? Give reasons for your answer?

Reviews

len2519737

5/19/2020 4:46:01 AM

This is not the final assignment. These are just the questions that I need to draw conclusions in order to sit for the final quiz.

Write a Review

Basic Statistics Questions & Answers

  Hawkish federal reserve chairman for the economy

What are the consequences of a more hawkish Federal Reserve Chairman for the economy's response to different types of shocks?

  Two independent alternators to provide electrical power

A certain airplane has two independent alternators to provide electrical power. The probability that a given alternator will fail on a 1-hour flight is .02. What is the probability that (a) both will fail? (b) Neither will fail? (c) One or the oth..

  The appropriate distribution for calculating the confidence

a random sample of 625 sat scores has a mean of 1500. assume that sat scores have a population standard deviation of

  Find the total cost of the new burger

If the cafeteria uses 1.18 ounces of beef and 2.91 ounces of bread to make the new burger, the total cost of the new burger (excluding other ingredients) is ____ dollars, (Please round to two decimal points and include no units.) and the content o..

  Supermarket accepts three types of credit cards

ADC supermarket accepts three types of credit cards, Master card, Visa and Tembo card.

  What percentage of the total respondents does it represent

You must summarize the data for 8,083 individuals. Specifically, you are tasked with building a 3-D pie graph showing the number and percentage of people.

  How much will need to be invested today

If you want to set aside enough money for the purchase, how much will need to be invested today? Assume an 8.25 annual discount rate

  A researcher believes that the retail price of new

a researcher believes that the retail price of new identical automobiles differs between an urban location and a

  Confidence interval estimate for true population proportion

Based on these sample data, construct a 90% confidence interval estimate for the true population proportion.

  Analyze the data using multiple regression

Analyze the data using multiple regression and what is the standard error of estimate? Can you use this statistic to assess the model's fit?

  Growth and development in captive beluga

In "Reproduction, Growth and Development in Captive Beluga," published in the journal Zoo Biology in 2005, researchers

  Which type of error did the bank make

When a person defaults on a loan, which type of error did the bank make?- Which kind of error is it when the bank misses an opportunity to make a loan to someone who would have repaid it?

Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd