Estimate the total uncertainty in prediction

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An unbiased prediction model accounts for only the aleatory uncer- tainty and has a COV of 0.25 in its prediction. An analyst believes that the param- eters of this model are uncertain, and characterizes this uncertainty to be of the epistemic type as a multiplier with a mean value of 1.1 and a COV of 0.25.

Estimate the total uncertainty in prediction by accounting for both the aleatory and epis- temic uncertainties assuming normal probability distributions. Briefly discuss your results.

Reference no: EM131222226

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