Estimate the total uncertainty in prediction

Reference no: EM131201919

A biased prediction model accounts for only the aleatory uncertainty and has a bias ratio of 0.95, that is, underprediction, and a COV of 0.1 in its prediction. An analyst believes that the parameters of this model are uncertain, and characterizes this uncertainty to be of the epistemic type as a multiplier with a mean value of 1.05 and a COV of 0.2. Estimate the total uncertainty in prediction by accounting for both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties assuming normal probability distributions. Briefly discuss your results.

Reference no: EM131201919

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