Estimate the predicted of emesis for men and women

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Reference no: EM132286999

Homework -

Show your code and the portions of the output you use for each section. This will help us follow you if there is some sort of mistake.

1. Using the data ponv400.csv from last time. Table 3 of the paper (below) shows the predicted % of PONV from the model for log odds of emesis with predictors opioid, prevponv, motion, sex, and sex*prevponv interaction as in Homework 7. Using your software, estimate the predicted % of emesis for men and women with and without prevponv, but without motion sickness or opioid anesthetic. Also estimate the 95% confidence intervals for those estimates. Compare with the table below:

Table 3 Predicted and actual outcomes for the 16 patient risk groups

Sex (female = 1)

Previous PONV

Motion sickness

Opioids

No. of subjects

Predicted % of PONV

Actual % of PONV

Predicted no. of vomiters

Actual no. of vomiters

0

0

0

0

53

0.65

7.54

0.34

4

0

0

1

0

2

1.41

0

0.028

0

0

0

0

1

51

5.79

19.60

2.95

10

1

0

0

0

63

6.72

19.05

4.24

10

0

0

1

1

1

11.82

0

0.12

0

1

1

0

0

25

13.47

24

3.37

6

1

0

1

0

16

13.59

50

2.17

8

1

1

1

0

7

25.35

57.14

1.78

4

0

1

0

0

9

25.73

11.11

2.32

1

1

0

0

1

83

40.37

48.19

33.51

40

0

1

1

0

1

43.05

0

0.43

0

1

1

0

1

34

59.39

70.59

20.19

24

1

0

1

1

24

59.63

37.5

14.31

9

1

1

1

1

22

76.13

77.27

16.75

17

0

1

0

1

7

76.49

85.71

5.36

6

0

1

1

1

2

87.65

100

1.75

2

2. Using the coefficients of the model formula from your model output (above) show that the odds ratio comparing (women with motion sickness but without opioids or previous ponv) to (men without motion sickness opiods or previous ponv) is exp(βfemale)*exp(βmotion), the product of the adjusted odds ratios for female and for motion, separately. Why does this work? Briefly justify.

Use the following for questions 4-6. The dataset lowbwtm11.csv is from the text Hosmer and Lemeshow. The data are from a matched case-control study of low birth weight among babies born to women at the Baystate Medical Center. The goal was to identify predictors of low birth weight. A total of 56 cases of low birth weight babies were enrolled in the study. Controls were selected after matching on age. Variables collected were.

Variable

Abbreviation

Pair Number

PAIR

Low Birth Weight (0 = Birth Weight ge 2500g, 1 = Birth Weight < 2500g)

LOW

Age of the Mother in Years

AGE

Weight in Pounds at the Last Menstrual Period

LWT

Race (1 = White, 2 = Black, 3 = Other)

RACE

Smoking Status During Pregnancy (1 = Yes, 0 = No)

SMOKE

History of Premature Labor (0 = None, 1 = Yes)

PTD

History of Hypertension (1 = Yes, 0 = No)

HT

Presence of Uterine Irritability (1 = Yes, 0 = No)

UI

The variable "pair number" indicates a matched pair, e.g. there are two records with pair number equal to 1 corresponding to a single case-control pair.

3. Fit two models predicting low birth weight. The first will be a model ignoring the matching (an INCORRECT model as it does not properly adjust for age). The second will incorporate the matching variable represented by "pair" to perform conditional logistic regression. In these two models, use uterine irritability to predict low birth weight (with no other covariates). Compare odds ratios for low birth weight for those mothers with and without uterine irritability, their 95% confidence intervals and their p-values for significance between the two models.

4. Repeat question 3, but adjust the analysis for smoking status, history of premature labor (ptd), hypertension and weight in pounds at last menstrual period. Compare the estimated adjusted odds ratios for low birth weight for those mothers with and without uterine irritability, their 95% confidence intervals and their p-values for significance between the two models.

5. According to the conditional regression model in question 4, what is the percent change in odds for low birth weight comparing women with and without UI, after adjustment for the other factors in the model? Show your work.

6. According to the conditional regression model in question 4, what is the percent change in odds for low birth weight comparing women who are 10 pounds different at the time of last menstrual period, after adjustment for the other factors in the model? Show your work.

Attachment:- Assignment Files.rar

Reference no: EM132286999

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Reviews

len2286999

4/18/2019 1:57:18 AM

Instructions: This homework assignment will give you some brief practice with stochastic (random) simulation. It can easily be done with Microsoft Excel or a compatible spreadsheet application, but those of you with experience in statistical software or programming language R can do the assignment in one of those environments if you wish. Don't be intimidated by the length of the text below; this is meant to be a guided exercise. Much of the narrative is aimed at explaining what is going on, and providing context.

len2286999

4/18/2019 1:57:11 AM

What to do: A hypothetical walk-in clinic whose sole purpose is to quickly evaluate appendicitis cases and perform same-day appendectomies. Note the overall flow from check-in to recovery and departure. The orange diamonds with "+" symbols in them areparallel gateways in BPMN notation. They branch out into separate activities which may occur in parallel, but all must be completed before continuing. For example, after patient check-in, the "MD prep", "med tests", and "get records" activities can take place simultaneously, but all three must be completed before proceeding to the consultation step. Because of this, the slowest activity will determine the overall time through that set of activities.

len2286999

4/18/2019 1:57:04 AM

Remember that times and durations are often modeled using exponential random variates, as opposed to normally-distributed random variates and so on. If you know how, take the 100 "new" surgery times from the spreadsheet above, and generate a histogram. It'll look rough, since it's a sample size of only 100, but it should look roughly exponential, and not like a bell-shaped normal distribution. Another clue is looking at the standard deviation of the times. A special property of exponential random variates is that their mean is equal to their standard deviation. Again, with a small sample size of 100, it won't be an exact match, but close enough to convince you. There are more advanced methods to statistically determine whether a sample distribution looks like an exponential, a normal, etc., but this is a topic well outside the scope of this course. (You may already be sick of the math by this point anyway!)

len2286999

4/18/2019 1:56:58 AM

Note that the average overall time will probably be higher than the overall time you calculated by just adding up the average times. This is because the two parallel sub-processes in the system are always selecting the longest of their respective three activity times (MD prep, med tests, get records, etc.) each time the simulation is run. There is actually an analytical way to calculate this result, but the math is very complicated. Believe it or not, by doing simulations like these, we're obtaining an approximation to the "true" results in a much easier manner!

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