Estimate the equity value per share

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SG Oil Ltd is a financially-distress firm. It had just reported a net loss of $0.10 per share recently (t = 0). Analysts, however, are predicting that the firm will turnaround and post a positive EPS of $0.26 per share in year 3 if the firm is able to overcome its existing cash flow problem. Estimate the equity value per share of SG Oil today (t = 0), given the following:

  • SG Oil's cost of equity is equal to 20%.
  • There is an 80% probability that SG Oil will default in the next 3 years and that the firm's equity will be worth nothing if the firm does not survive.
  • The current PE ratio for comparable (going concern) firms in the same industry, which is equal to 15.0 times, is assumed to remain constant over time.

Reference no: EM133076155

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