Elisa test for aids and bayes rule

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The ELISA test for AIDS was used in the screening of blood donations in the 1990s. As with most medical diagnostic tests, the ELISA test is not infallible. If a person actually carries the AIDS virus, experts estimate that this test gives a positive result 97.7% of the time. If a person does not carry the AIDS virus, ELISA gives a negative result 92.6% of the time. Experts also estimate that 0.5% of the American public carries the AIDS virus.

Suppose that someone tells you that they have tested positive. Given this information, what is the probability that the person actually carries the AIDS virus?

Reference no: EM1399575

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