Reference no: EM131246621
Surgery: A patient is very sick and will die in 6 months if he goes untreated. The only available treatment is risky surgery. The patient is expected to live for 12 months if the surgery is successful, but the probability that the surgery will fail and the patient will die immediately is 0.3.
a. Draw a decision tree for this decision problem.
b. Let v(x) be the patient's payoff function, where x is the number of months until death. Assuming that v(12) = 1and v(0) = 0, what is the lowest payoff the patient can have for living 3 months so that having surgery is a best response?
For the rest of the problem, assume that v(3) = 0.8.
c. A test is available that will provide some information that predicts whether or not surgery will be successful. A positive test implies an increased likelihood that the patient will survive the surgery as follows: True-positive rate: The probability that the results of this test will be positive if surgery is to be successful is 0.90. False-positive rate: The probability that the results of this test will be positive if the patient will not survive the operation is 0.10. What is the probability of a successful surgery if the test is positive?
d. Assuming that the patient has the test done, at no cost, and the result is positive, should surgery be performed?
e. It turns out that the test may have some fatal complications; that is, the patient may die during the test. Draw a decision tree for this revised problem.
f. If the probability of death during the test is 0.005, should the patient opt to have the test prior to deciding on the operation?
What liberal and conservative mean
: Reflect: Consider the information on The Political Compass website. How well did the information on the website conform to your own views of what "liberal" and "conservative" mean? How well did the information conform to the media's portrayals of ..
|
Pursue only the third step of the three-step project
: If the research were costless, what would be the firm's expected gain from it before the project began?
|
Isolate the income and substitution effects
: Show the effect of a wage decrease on an individual's income-leisure choices. Isolate the income and substitution effects. Is the worker on the forward d-rising or backward bending portion of the labor supply curve?
|
Competitive market-market demand
: In a competitive market, the market demand is Qd= 150 - 2P and the market supply is Qs= 30 + 4P. A price ceiling of $16 will result in a shortage of 24 units.
|
Draw a decision tree for this decision problem
: It turns out that the test may have some fatal complications; that is, the patient may die during the test. Draw a decision tree for this revised problem.
|
What specific events support your conclusion
: Think about the many ways that the United States has made tremendous progress in realizing equality for all Americans. Where are there still some areas in which there is more to do? What conclusions have you reached while researching your Final Pr..
|
Macroeconomic accounts for three countries
: The following table provides some hypothetical data on macroeconomic accounts for three countries represented by A, B, and C and measured in billions of currency units. In the table, private household saving is SH, tax revenue is T, government spe..
|
How does disruptive change affect an organization
: What is "disruptive change," and how is this different from "incremental change?" How does disruptive change affect an organization
|
What is your set of possible alternatives
: Draw a decision tree and assign payoffs to the terminal nodes associated with the possible alternatives. What would you choose?
|