Reference no: EM131632404

Instructions:

Read the following problem.

Fun Time at the Carnival

You and some friends are attending a local outdoor carnival which has all of the assorted rides (roller coasters, loop-de-loops, and carousels), arcade games (shooting galleries, softball toss) and games of chance. One particular game of chance at this carnival is called "Pick the Chevrolet Corvette". A typical carnival barker, let's call him Mr. Shyster (straw hat, obnoxious tweed sports jacket) is standing in front of a row of 4 tents (Tent #1, Tent #2, Tent #3, and Tent #4), each with a front flap that is zippered shut so what is inside the tent is hidden from view.

You notice that your friend, Mrs. Smith, approaches Mr. Shyster and wants to play the game. Shyster says (truthfully) that inside one of the tents is a brand new Chevrolet Corvette; the other 3 tents contain worthless items (say a pile of old newspapers in one tent; a pile of old empty tin cans in one tent; and collection of Kenny G albums in one tent).
(Now of course Mr. Shyster knows what is inside each tent.)

Mr. Shyster says to Mrs. Smith: "Pick a tent. You get to keep what is inside that tent". Mrs. Smith picks Tent #1. The tent remains zippered shut at this point.

(Again, Mr. Shyster knows what's inside each tent, so he knows whether she has picked the Corvette or not. Also whether she has picked the Corvette or not, there are at least 2 tents (other than Tent #1 and the tent hiding the Corvette - which could be one and the same tent) that contain the worthless items).

Mr. Shyster opens 2 of these other tents (say Tent #2 and Tent # 3) and shows her that these 2 tents contain worthless items. (So Tent #1 and Tent #4 remain zippered shut, with the Corvette behind one of them).

Mr. Shyster then offers Mrs. Smith a deal: "You can keep what's behind the tent you selected (Tent #1). Or you can switch to the other (unopened) tent, Tent #4".

Mrs. Smith turns to you and asks for your advice.

Do you tell her to keep her original selection (Tent #1), or switch to Tent #4? Explain your reasoning!!!