Reference no: EM131647376

Question: NBA draft lottery. Professional basketball teams hold a "draft" each year in which they get to pick the best available college and high school players. In an effort to promote competition, teams with the worst records get to pick first, theoretically allowing them to add better players. To combat the fear that teams with no chance to make the playoffs might try to get better draft picks by intentionally losing late-season games, the NBA's Board of Governors adopted a weighted lottery system in 1990. Under this system, the 11 teams that did not make the playoffs were eligible for the lottery. The NBA prepared 66 cards, each naming one of the teams. The team with the worst win-loss record was named on 11 of the cards, the second-worst team on 10 cards, and so on, with the team having the best record among the nonplayoff clubs getting only one chance at having the first pick. The cards were mixed, then drawn randomly to determine the order in which the teams could draft players. (Since 1995, 13 teams have been involved in the lottery, using a complicated system with 14 numbered Ping-Pong balls drawn in groups of four.) Suppose there are two exceptional players available in this year's draft and your favorite team had the thirdworst record. Use a simulation to find out how likely it is that your team gets to pick first or second. Describe your simulation carefully.