Develop forecast of the tonnage of grain unloaded

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Reference no: EM132229666

During the past five hours, the Port of Long Beach in California unloaded large quantities of grain from ships and relevant data are summarized in the table below:

Hour Quantity unloaded (tons)

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1 3,406

2 3,440

3 3,298

4 3,372

5 3,436

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(1) Use the naïve approach to develop a forecast of the tonnage of grain unloaded in each hour up to the 5th hour.

(2) Repeat (1) above by using the 2-hour simple moving average method.

(3) Which of the two forecasting techniques is more accurate based on MAD? Be sure to carry four decimal places for irrational numbers.

(4) Which of the two forecasting techniques is more accurate based on MSE? Be sure to carry four decimal places for irrational numbers.

(5) Are your conclusions in (3) and (4) consistent? If not, what can be done to determine which of the two techniques should be used to provide future forecasts of quantities to be unloaded at the port?

Reference no: EM132229666

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