Reference no: EM133043399
An emergency department of a local hospital would like to forecast the number of visits for the next year. The number of visits for the department over the past 10 years are shown in the following table. Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ED Visits 74,000 73,800 75,600 76,400 78,000 77,300 79,200 78,000 81,000 81,500
a) Develop a three-year simple moving average forecast for years 4 through 10.
b) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast for years 2 through 10 using a forecast of 75,000 visits for year 1 and a = 0.60.
c) Compute the mean squared error (MSE) for each of the forecasting methods studied in parts a and b with error measurement beginning in year 4. Based on your results, which forecasting method would yield the best results and why? Using that method, what is the forecast of ED visits for next year.
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