Reference no: EM132284267
Assignment -
You are given additional information about the uncertainties identified as important in the first part.
(1) First, you should develop a simulation model
(2) Second, answer the key questions of the case: How much olive oil should Lockfeld order? How risky is this venture?
Below is some help when developing simulation model,
When it comes to fitting distributions to 10-50-90 percentiles, you may discover that some distributions (e.g., triangular) may be unable to match the specified percentiles; CB will tell you this. This is not a limitation of CB but a limitation of the particular family of distributions. You can always use custom distributions as described below.
Here is a description of how to match 10-50-90s using the custom distribution tool. To use this method, you will need not just the 10-50-90s, but also a lower and upper bound to the distribution. You may assume reasonable values for these bounds.
a. Select the cell you want to define a distribution for and choose "Define Assumption;" choose "Custom Distribution" from the gallery of distributions presented.
b. Choose "Continuous Ranges" from the "Parameters" menu, so that on the bottom of the Define Assumption window you see "Minimum", "Maximum" and "Probability" as the inputs.
c. Put the lower bound of the distribution in the "Minimum" field on the dialog box. Put the 10th percentile into the "Maximum" field and put probability 0.10 in the "Probability" field. Hit Enter. This will place a uniform distribution between the lower bound and the 10th percentile with total probability of 0.10.
d. When you hit Enter above, the "Minimum," "Maximum" and "Probability" fields should clear. Now put the 10th percentile into the field "Minimum" and the 50th percentile into the "Maximum" field and 0.40 into the "Probability" field. Hit enter.
e. Now put the 50th percentile into the "Minimum" field and the 90th percentile into the "Maximum" field and 0.40 into the "Probability" field. Hit enter.
f. Not put the 90th percentile into the "Minimum" field and the upper bound of the distribution into the "Maximum" field and 0.10 into the "Probability" field. Hit enter.
g. Hit OK.
You can also link these values for the custom distribution to your worksheet, using "Load Data." (You must hit "Show more" in the Define Assumption dialog box to see "Load Data.")
On correlating cells: CB allows you to specify correlations between assumptions that are defined using CB dialog boxes. CB does not allow you to specify correlations between the distributions specified as formulas or calculated values in the spreadsheet. (CB doesn't know about these!) In the case, it says that price and broker fees are correlated with 1993 demand. If it simplifies your model, you may assume that this correlation is between 1993 base demand (that is, demand not including the catalog sales) rather than the total 1993 demand.
Attachment:- Assignment Files.rar
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