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Question - Suppose that the Perpetual Help College of Rizal had the following record of its growth of enrollment from 2011 -2020.
Year
Enrolment
2011
5,200
2016
7,000
2012
5,500
2017
8,800
2013
6,000
2018
9,400
2014
6,500
2019
9,600
2015
6,800
2020
10,500
Required -
a) Develop a forecast of enrolment beginning 2014 to 2021 using 3-years moving average forecast model.
b) Using weights of .50 for the most recent data, .30 to the second recent data, and .20 to the 3 months old data, develop a forecast beginning 2014 to 2021 using 3 years weighted moving average forecast model.
c) Using exponential smoothing and smoothing constant of .30 and 2011 previous forecast of 5200, develop a forecast of enrolment from 2012 to 2021.
d) Forecast enrollment using Trend line Projection from 2011 to 2021.
e) Evaluate forecast accuracy of each forecast model using MSE. Which model should you recommend?
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