Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter

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Reference no: EM132316080

Forecasting Assignment -

Q1. Given the following data, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third quarter of this year. Note, the first quarter is January, February, and March; the second quarter is April, May, and June; the third quarter is July, August, September, and the 4^th quarter is October, November, and December

	Jan	Feb	mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Last Year	210	235	245	285	295	310	260	250	240	310	335	360
This Year	230	245	255	295	305	295

Q2. Below is data for the past 21 months for actual sales of a particular product. Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter using a three- quarter, weighted moving average. Weight the most recent quarter 0.5, the second most recent 0.25, and the third 0.25. Approach this problem using quarters, as opposed to forecasting separate months.

	Last Year	This Year
Jan	410	475
Feb	510	575
Mar	535	550
Apr	560	525
May	510	500
Jun	570	550
Jul	505	550
Aug	410	575
Sep	485	560
Oct	610
Nov	660
Dec	610

Q3. The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of operation. If a three month moving average is used, what would have been the forecast for July?

Month	Complaints
Jan	26
Feb	29
Mar	34
Apr	50
May	12
Jun	36

Q4. The following data are actual sales of units for six month and a starting forecast in January. Calculate forecasts for the remaining five months using simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.2

	Actual	Forecast
Jan	65	70
Feb	70
Mar	76
Apr	80
May	85
Jun	98

Please illustrate at least one calculation for one month. Note: Show your work to two decimal points.

Q5. Based on the following data, develop a forecast for the expected demand for Year 2. Assume the demand for year two will be 86,000 units. Please round to two decimal points in your answers. This is a seasonal demand forecast.

Year 1	Past Sales (Units)
Quarter 1	20,000
Quarter 2	26,000
Quarter 3	18,400
Quarter 4	19,800

You may illustrate this in tables if you wish, but show your calculation within the table.

Q6. Based on the limited data presented, calculate the potential sales for August to provide the best possible estimate.

Month	Past Sales (Units)
June	29,000
July	25,000
August

Q7. Room registrations at the Day's Inn in Fairmont have been recorded for the past 9 years. To project future occupancy, management would like to determine the trend of guest registrations. This estimate could then be used to help the hotel determine future expansion needs. With the following data, develop a regression equation related to registrations and time. Then forecast year-12 registrations. Room registrations are in thousands.

Year 1: 27, Year 2: 26, Year 3: 27, Year 4: 31, Year 5: 30, Year 6: 33, Year 7: 34, Year 8: 35, Year 9: 36

Q8. Riding lawn tractors at Lowe's in Clarksburg, West Virginia over the past 4 months have sold 100, 110, 120, and 135 units (with 135 being the most recent sales). Develop a moving average forecast for next month using these techniques:

a. 3-month moving average.

b. 4-month moving average.

c. Weighted 4-month moving average with the most recent month weighted 0.4, the preceding month 0.3, then 0.2, and the oldest month weighted 0.1.

d. If next month's sales turn out to be 145 units, forecast the following month's sales (months) using a 4-month moving average.

Reference no: EM132316080

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