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Recalculate the forecasts using an α of 0.2 and a β of 0.2. Have you improved on the original MAD?
Week
Actual Load Factor
Smoothed Value
Smoothed Trend
Forecast
Forecast Error
t
At
St
Tt
Ft
|At - Ft|
1
31
31.00
0.00
2
40
35.50
1.35
9
3
43
39.93
2.27
37
6
4
52
47.10
3.74
42
10
5
49
49.92
3.47
51
64
58.69
5.06
53
11
7
58
60.88
4.20
8
68
66.54
4.63
65
MAD 6.7
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