Reference no: EM131496027

Decision Analysis

(You must complete this assignment in Excel and submit that Excel file)

The director of career advising at Orange Community College wants to use decision analysis to provide information to help students decide which 2-year degree program they should pursue. The director has set up the following payoff table for six of the most popular and successful degree programs at OCC that shows the estimated 5-year gross income ($) from each degree for four future economic conditions:

Degree Program	Economic Conditions
	Recession	Average	Good	Robust
Graphic Design	145,000	175,000	220,000	260,000
Nursing	150,000	180,000	205,000	215,000
Real Estate	115,000	165,000	220,000	320,000
Medical Tech	130,000	180,000	210,000	280,000
Culinary Tech	115,000	145,000	235,000	305,000
Computer IT	125,000	150,000	190,000	250,000
Probability	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1

Determine the best degree program in terms of projected income, using the following decision criteria:

a. Maximax

b. Maximin

c. Equal likelihood

d. Hurwicz (alpha = .6)

e. Minimax regret

f. EOL (expected opportunity loss)

g. The director of career advising at Orange Community College has paid a small fee to a local investment firm to indicate a probability for each future economic condition over the next 5 years, which is shown in the last row of the above table. Using expected value determine the best degree program in terms of projected income.

h. Determine the EVPI of this problem.