Determining best prediction model

Assignment Help Basic Statistics

Reference no: EM1395836

Given the following data on Asian and European Share of U.S. Light Truck Sales(1990-2003):

Year t Percent

1990 1 16.4

1991 2 17.1

1992 3 14.3

1993 4 13.7

1994 5 14.2

1995 6 13.6

1996 7 13.6

1997 8 15.4

1998 9 16.2

1999 10 18.4

2000 11 21.2

2001 12 23.1

2002 13 23.9

2003 14 26.6

Source: Detroit Free Press, November 19, 2003. p.1A.

a) Plot the market-share data. [Enter the data in Excel, highlight 'percent' column, click Insert menu, choose Line chart, select Line with Markers]

b) Describe the trend (if any) and discuss possible causes.

c) Fit three trends (linear, exponential, quadratic/polynomial). [Right click the line chart/line marker, select 'add trendline', default is linear. Check the box 'Display equation on chart'. Repeat the process for other trends after selecting each trend].

d) Which trend model is best, and why? If none is satisfactory, explain.

e) Make a forecast for 2004 by using a trend model of your choice or a judgment forecast.

Reference no: EM1395836

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