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Question: Credit risk & sovereign debt Several countries have recently been subject to a heightened scrutiny over their sovereign debt situation over the last years. Some of these include for example: Argentina, Colombia, Ghana, Italy, Lebanon, South Africa, and Turkey.
. Select two countries from this list (or other ones in a similar sovereign debt situation) and report the corresponding credit rating(s) and 5-year CDS spreads.
. List 2-3 key factors that have recently impacted (positively or negatively) their sovereign risk. Explain.
. Determine and compare their debt/gdp ratios. Given markets' short/medium-term ex- pectations about the growth rate and borrowing costs of these countries, would you expect their debt/gdp ratio to increase or decrease? What factors/policies may poten- tially improve it or deteriorate it further?
. Provide a trading recommendation in light of your analysis.
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