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Individual Assignment
The purpose of this assignment is to get some experience describing and analyzing a typical measles outbreak. Here is the scenario: You are an epidemiologist with the state immunization program. Your Division Director wants information on a recent measles outbreak. In particular, this outbreak has been in the news and your Director wants an analysis so he can respond to questions (eg "how come a third of the cases are in vaccinated persons - does the vaccine work?"). The template attached is a very typical example of how you might respond to this request. Fill in the rest of the template including:
• a graph representing the epidemiological curve of the outbreak,• a narrative description of the salient features of the outbreak and the epi curve,• an analysis of vaccine efficacy (including a calculation of vaccine efficacy for this outbreak), and• a list of conclusions and recommendations for your Director based on your description and analyses.
The results of the case and contact investigations are below:
Case investigation:
A pediatrician had evaluated a 10-year-old child in the emergency department on May 10th, 2016 who was suspected to have Kawasaki disease. The child had arrived from India on May 8th and had developed a rash on May 9th. A review of medical records led the investigators to reconsider the rash illness in the 10-year-old child as a possible measles case following the laboratory confirmation of measles by IgM testing.
A total of 108 contacts were identified as exposed to the index case or to the siblings. Of the 108, 100 were vaccinated and 7 were unvaccinated. A total of twelve measles cases were diagnosed in this outbreak. All cases are summarized in the table below.
Case Description
Age
Onset date
Vaccination h/o
Lab Confirmed y/n
Index
10
09-May
no vaccine
y
sibling 1
7
23-May
sibling 2
9
26-May
n
father
34
1 MMR (no record)
contact - index
12 mo
27-May
pediatrician
51
28-May
3 MMRs
contact - siblings
47
03-Jun
8
04-Jun
05-Jun
06-Jun
2 MMRs
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