Reference no: EM131954443

As you can see in the? following? table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past? few? year

Year 1 2 3 4 5

Heart transplants 45.0 48.0 53.0 56.0 60.0

The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 41.0 surgeries.

??a) Using exponential smoothing with? α of 0.60 and the given forecast for? year? 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are ???(round to one decimal ??place)??:

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6

Forecast 41.0 ___ ___ ___ ____ _____ _____

For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with? α ?= 0.60 and the given forecast for? year? 1,? MAD? = _____surgeries ???(round your response to one decimal ?place?).

Using exponential smoothing with? α of 0.90 and the given forecast for? year? 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are ???(round to one decimal ??place)??:

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6

Forecast 41.0 ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___

For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with? α ?= 0.90 and the given forecast for? year? 1,? MAD? =_____nothing surgeries ???(round to one decimal ?place?).

??b) Forecasts for years 4 through 6 using? a? 3-year moving average are? ?(round your responses to one decimal? ?place)?:

Year 4 5 6

Forecast ___ ____ ____

For forecasts made using? a? 3-year? moving? average,? MAD? =_____surgeries

??c) Forecasts for years 1 through 6 using? the? trend-projection method are ???(round to one decimal ??place)??:

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6

Forecast ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___

For the forecast made using the? trend-projection method,? MAD? = ____surgeries ??.

?d) Based on the comparison? of? MAD, the best forecast is achieved using the following? method:

A exponential smoothing with alpha? = 0.9

B trend projection

C exponential smoothing with alpha? = 0.6

D ?3-year moving average