Reference no: EM132361902

Question

Need to make sure that this paragraph follows the definition of a overconfidence trap. Template is as follows:

For this Discussion, select one of these traps listed EXCEPT the sunk cost trap. Then, do the following:

1. From your professional experience, provide a real, specific example where you believe decision makers (you or other managers) encountered the trap.
2. Explain why you think your example fits the trap you selected. Remember, there are many bad decisions that are not the result of a decision trap. Does your example have the characteristics of the decision trap you selected? Start by providing a definition of the trap according to the article and explain why your example fits.
3. Provide specific recommendations to your organization to identify and prevent the trap from occurring in the future.

Trap name: Overconfidence Trap

What happened:  I am continually looking at worst-case scenarios for Port Operations. One of the most unhelpful data points is how many ships I can do range degaussing (a magnetic signature test on ships) a month. However, the max number of ships using the range every month significantly over exceeds the maximum amount that I have calculated. My calculations of ships are caused by ranging 24/7, no stopping.  

Why it fits this Trap: We looked at our records and the highest concentration of ship traffic ever recorded at our range was in the Gulf War. The number of ships that were coming out of the range was significantly less we calculated for ships using the range. 24/7 range calculations are impractical because ships don't need to run the range that often. There will never be that many ships to run the range in the first place.  

Recommendations: Take the highest recorded amount of ranges from historical data and use that as a standard. Just because we can do that many ships does not mean that practically we would since the odds of that situation happening are infinitesimal.