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Summarize the argument developed in Sections 1-5 of Carl Hempel's Studies in the Logic of Confirmation, specifically that part of the paper than deals with Nicod's characterization of the confirmation relation and the example of the Ravens that undermines it. Discuss the following situations:
Discussion a) The urn in front of you either contains 100 white balls (H1), or 75 white balls and 25 black balls (H2). Assume that these are the only two hypotheses that are at play. Does the blind extraction of a white ball confirm H1? H1 and H2? Neither? Discuss.
Discussion b) Granted the logical equivalence of "All ravens are black" and "All non-black objects are non-ravens", what accounts for our intuition (or illusion) that the observation of a white piece of chalk confirms the latter but not the former statement?
Discussion c) Granted that any observation that confirms one of the two universal generalizations must confirm the other, why is it that the observation of a white piece of chalk confirms (or perhaps just seems to confirm) the two logically equivalent generalizations to a lesser degree than does the observation of a black raven? Can you define a universe in which the observation of a white piece of chalk confirms "All ravens are black" to a greater degree than does the observation of a black raven?
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