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Q1) Owner of Sliding By Ski Slopes in southern Pennsylvania mountains is trying to make a decision whether or not to rent snow-making equipment for coming winter season. He has lived in area and operated ski resort for only past four winters.
There are 3 rental equipment options: 1) rent none; 2) rent sufficient to give snow for about 30% of trails; and 3) rent sufficient to give snow for about 60% of the trails. He has projected profits for each of these alternatives under 3 conditions: little snow, average snow, and heavy snow. Data is included in given table.
Projected Profits
Alternative Actions
State
Little snow
Average snow
Heavy snow
No Rental
$-200,000
$200,000
$600,000
30% trails open
$-100,000
$500,000
60% trails open
$100,000
$400,000
Finding which alternative action to select depends on how much snow to expect this winter. Owner uses his experience to evaluate probabilities: of last four years in region, one had light snow, two had average snow, and one had heavy snow.
Create the corresponding decision tree and make recommendations.
Confirm that these statements are accurate by finding the geometric mean rate of increase.
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