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Problem #1 (Scenario Manager for Newsvendor Problem - 12 points): Create a model to calculate the profits for a company making this product. The formula for profits is:
Profits = revenue - fixed costs - variable costs Revenue = unit price * units sold Variable costs = unit cost * quantity produced Units sold (you need to figure out for yourself)
Unit price $60
Unit cost $35
Fixed cost $550,000
Quantity produced 60,000
Uncertain Demand
Case Probability Quantity
Recession 0.1 35,000
Poor growth 0.2 45,000
Base-case 0.4 55,000
Lucky 0.2 65,000
Boom 0.1 75,000
Using Scenario Manager, create a scenario summary of the demand quantity and profits. You will not receive full credit unless I see a single scenario summary report is generated by scenario manager.
Problem #2 (Excel Data Table - 12 points): Use the spreadsheet you have from above, create a data table in which the input variable to be changed is demand and show the resulting profit. You will not receive full credit unless I see that you have used a data table. The values for demand are:
Demand Profit
40,000 ???
45,000 ???
50,000 ???
55,000 ???
60,000 ???
65,000 ???
70,000 ???
75,000 ???
Problem #3 (Excel Monte Carlo Simulation - 12 points): given the above model and data and the probabilities (from problem #3), run thirty (30) experiments for the uncertain demand and show the corresponding thirty values for the resulting profits. What is the expected value of the profit from your experiments?
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