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Construct a time series plot of housing starts

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Reference no: EM132869910

Housing starts 22859 24001 25140 25812 25253 24736

25253 24262 27173 25036 26111 27271 27520 27886 26738 27553 28418 30297 30468 31291 30741 31882 35414 33715 35268 35494 35854 35898 37776 39176 41906 45821 43965 41509 37650 35797 33977 30134 27351 24693 22366 21449 18949 14586 13817 15732 18630 18024 18634 16717 14619 15265 14991 15584 16223 17201

a. Construct a time series plot of housing starts. Do you see a pattern in the data?

b. Use exponential smoothing with α=0.4 to develop a forecast of housing starts for the first quarter of 2012.

c. Compute the accuracy of your forecast using all three measures discussed in the class?

d. Applying the forecast accuracy measures, would you prefer a smoothing constant of α=0.2, α=0.3, or α=0.4 for the housing start time series? Are the conclusions the same regardless of the choice of the forecast accuracy measure?

e. Compute four-quarter and five-quarter moving averages for the housing starts time series.

Reference no: EM132869910

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