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Construct a time series plot

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Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

Quarter

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

1

923

1112

1243

2

1056

1156

1301

3

1124

1124

1254

4

992

1078

1198


Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. Qtr1 = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise.

Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model developed in part b.

Compare the three-period moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.3. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

Reference no: EM131323803

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