Conditional probability of an event

Assignment Help Basic Statistics

Reference no: EM1316771

A large number of people claim that an alien spacecraft crash-landed in Roswell, New Mexico. Let E be the event that this claim is true and let R be the event that large numbers of people report it to be true.

a. If Pr(R|E) = 1 and Pr(R|~E) = q < 1 find the posterior belief that E is true given R for someone who has a prior belief p

b. Show that the posterior belief is decreasing in q and increasing in p. Explain

c. Show that someone will think that the claim has more than a fifty percent chance of being true if p > q / (1 + q). Explain.

Reference no: EM1316771

Questions Cloud

The difference among the two population proportions : Compute a 90 percent confidence interval for the difference among the two population proportions. The CEO of the company would like to find out if Canadians.

Best level of output and price : In Bayonne, New Jersey, there is a large beauty salon and a number of smaller ones. The total demand function for hair styling per day is Q=180-10P, where P is in dollars.

Find the measures of variation : Find the measures of variation within the context of this problem. Why should the firm producing the tea bags be concerned about variation?

Explain decision making on fund management : Explain Decision making on fund management and what will be the outlook for such company

Conditional probability of an event : Show that someone will think that the claim has more than a fifty percent chance of being true if p > q / (1 + q). Explain.

Operation for circular linked list : Write down an algorithm or code segment for searching the circular linked list for a given item. Write down an algorithm or the code segment for locating nth successor of an item within a circular linked list (nth item which follows the given item ..

Decision tree to determine best course of action : If the agency is risk neutral, use a decision tree to determine its best course of action.

Determining the probability for employee : If employee is chosen at random, determine the probability that employee is female and salaried staff? Choose the best answer from the following.

Explain accounts receivables : Explain Accounts receivables and What is the level of accounts receivable needed to support this sales expansion

User Account

All Pages