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Using the following project information (Times are estimates in weeks):
Activity Optimistic Time Most Likely Time Pessimistic Time Immediate Predecessor(s) Variance Expected Time
A 3 6 9 none 1.000 6.00
B 3 5 7 A 0.444 5.00
C 4 7 12 A 1.778 7.33
D 4 8 10 B 1.000 7.67
E 5 10 16 C 3.361 10.17
F 3 4 5 D,E 0.111 4.00
G 3 6 8 D,E 0.694 5.83
H 5 6 10 F 0.694 6.33
I 5 8 11 G 1.000 8.00
J 3 3 3 H,I 0.000 3.00
The critical path is A-C-E-G-I-J.
a) Calculate the probability that the project will be completed in 38 weeks.
b) Calculate the probability that the project will be completed in 42 weeks.
What shape would the probability distribution have for (a) completely certain returns and (b) completely uncertain returns?
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