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Prunella Mindmunkle has compiled data on the sixteen presidential elections since 1960. (Many scholars of the American political process incorporate this timeframe for data analysis. This is because the Kennedy/Nixon presidential debates that year marked the first widespread use of television as a tool for political communication.) She looked on data on the unemployment rate that year, using this as a measure of overall economic conditions. The other variable she looked at was the percentage of overall two-party vote received by the incumbent party, as a measure of political satisfaction. She expected the correlation between these two variables to be negative - that is, the higher the unemployment rate, the lower the rate of satisfaction with the incumbent party.
Prunella computed a correlation between her two variables of -0.18.
Treat these sixteen elections as a random sample from a hypothetical population of all such elections. Perform all steps of an appropriate hypothesis test to investigate whether the economy (as measured by the unemployment rate) really is a significant influencer of voter preference.
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