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Compute the sales forecast

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Reference no: EM13863018

Clyde's Chairs and Things sells custom made chairs. Yearly sales from 1983 to 2011 are provided below. After analyzing the information, answer the following questions as completely as possible:

1. Plot the yearly sales data.

2. Compute the sales forecast for 2012 using the following approaches:

a) naïve forecast

b) a four year moving average

c) a weighted 3 year average using .5 for 2011, .3 for 2010, and .2 for 2009

d) exponential smoothing with alpha (smoothing constant) equal to .4 and assuming a 1984 forecast value of 20,050

3. Which method was the most appropriate and why? Which was the least appropriate and why?

Year

Chair Sales (Qty.)

1983

16,688

1984

21,184

1985

25,594

1986

28,110

1987

25,311

1988

20,112

1989

14,521

1990

10,749

1991

11,343

1992

15,162

1993

15,820

1994

16,533

1995

14,449

1996

15,077

1997

15,152

1998

16,303

1999

15,457

2000

14,199

2001

13,030

2002

13,636

2003

13,037

2004

14,842

2005

14,585

2006

10,916

2007

6,928

2008

5,368

2009

5,074

2010

5,839

2011

4,889

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Reference no: EM13863018

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