Reference no: EM132880273

The probability of an infant Carl turning 44 years old (event A) and the probability of the infant Susan turning 44 years old (event B) is 96 % for both (we are given the info that 95,726 people out of 100,000 will survive to 44).

The first follow-up question is: Compute the probability of Carl turning 44 years old (event A), given that Susan has reached the age of 44 (event B). Since these are independent events, isn't the answer still 96% for Carl?

The second follow up question has theprobability of Susan turning 44 years old as evnt A, given that Carl has reached the age of 44 (event B). Again, aren't these independent events? And so isn't the answer still 96% for Susan? My understanding is that it would be different if they were starting from different ages, but we aren't given that info.

Finally, the last question is to compute the probability of both Carl turning 44 years old (event A again), and Susan turning 44 years old (now she's back to event B). Given no additional information, aren't these all independent events, asked in various ways, but resulting in the same probability?