Reference no: EM131682391

Question: You are being tested for psychic powers. Suppose that you do not have psychic powers. A standard deck of cards is shuffled, and the cards are dealt face down one by one. Just after each card is dealt, you name any card (as your prediction). Let X be the number of cards you predict correctly. (See Diaconis 6 for much more about the statistics of testing for psychic powers.)

(a) Suppose that you get no feedback about your predictions. Show that no matter what strategy you follow, the expected value of X stays the same; find this value. (On the other hand, the variance may be very different for different strategies. For example, saying "Ace of Spades" every time gives variance 0.)

(b) Now suppose that you get partial feedback: after each prediction, you are told immediately whether or not it is right (but without the card being revealed). Suppose you use the following strategy: keep saying a specific card's name (e.g., "Ace of Spades") until you hear that you are correct. Then keep saying a different card's name (e.g., "Two of Spades") until you hear that you are correct (if ever). Continue in this way, naming the same card over and over again until you are correct and then switching to a new card, until the deck runs out. Find the expected value of X, and show that it is very close to e -1.

(c) Now suppose that you get complete feedback: just after each prediction, the card is revealed. Call a strategy "stupid" if it allows, e.g., saying "Ace of Spades" as a guess after the Ace of Spades has already been revealed. Show that any non-stupid strategy gives the same expected value for X; find this value.