Compute the mse the mape and the rsfe forecasting method

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1. The owner of the Chocolate Outlet Store wants to forecast chocolate demand. Demand for the preceding four years is shown in the following table:

YEAR

DEMAND (POUNDS)

1

68,800

2

71,000

3

75,500

4

71,200

Forecast demand for Year 5 using the following approaches: (1) a three-year moving average; (2) a three-year weighted moving average using. 40 for Year 4, .20 for Year 3, and .40 for Year 2; (3) exponential smoothing with a = .30, and assuming the forecast for Period 1 = 68,000.

2. The forecasts generated by two forecasting methods and actual sales are as follows:

MONTH

SALES

FORECAST1

FORECAST 2

1

269

275

268

2

289

266

287

3

294

290

292

4

278

184

298

5

268

270

274

6

269

268

270

7

260

261

259

8

275

271

275

Compute the MSE, the MAD, the MAPE, the RSFE, and the tracking signal for each forecasting method. Which method is better? Why?

Reference no: EM13849394

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