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1. The owner of the Chocolate Outlet Store wants to forecast chocolate demand. Demand for the preceding four years is shown in the following table:
YEAR
DEMAND (POUNDS)
1
68,800
2
71,000
3
75,500
4
71,200
Forecast demand for Year 5 using the following approaches: (1) a three-year moving average; (2) a three-year weighted moving average using. 40 for Year 4, .20 for Year 3, and .40 for Year 2; (3) exponential smoothing with a = .30, and assuming the forecast for Period 1 = 68,000.
2. The forecasts generated by two forecasting methods and actual sales are as follows:
MONTH
SALES
FORECAST1
FORECAST 2
269
275
268
289
266
287
294
290
292
278
184
298
5
270
274
6
7
260
261
259
8
271
Compute the MSE, the MAD, the MAPE, the RSFE, and the tracking signal for each forecasting method. Which method is better? Why?
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