Reference no: EM133287622
DECISION TREE ANALYSIS
You're a star hockey player for your school. In today's practice session, you tripped and hurt your ankle. Based on the x-ray results, the doctor thinks that it's broken with probability 0.2. So, the question is, should you play in the hockey tournament against another school tomorrow?
If you play, you think your school's hockey team will win with probability 0.1. If your leg is broken and you play on it, then you'll damage it further. So, your utilities are as follows: if your team wins, and your leg isn't broken, +100; if your team wins and your leg is broken, +50; if your team loses and your leg isn't broken 0; if your team loses and your leg is broken -50. If you don't play tomorrow, then if your leg is broken your utility is -10, and if it isn't, it's 0.
Question 1: Draw the decision tree for this problem.
Question 2: Evaluate the tree, indicating the best action choice and its expected utility.
Question 3: Compute the expected value of perfect information about the state of your leg. Draw the decision tree.
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