Reference no: EM132965607
Question - Let's consider the stand-alone risk of the project (10% of your grade). Assume that you have three possible scenarios for sales. The worst scenario is that you have long recession and the units sold per year are 30% less than predicted. The best scenario is that to have a long economic boom and the units sold per year are 30% more than predicted. Finally, there is a base scenario in which the units sold are as predicted. The probability of having a recession is 25%. The probability of having an economic boom is 25% and the probability of having normal times (base scenario) is 50%.
-Compute the expected value of NPV, the standard deviation of NPV and the coefficient of variation of NPV.
-If you assume a 4% risk adjustment over the cost of capital (8%), do you still approve the project? Explain.
John Smith is looking to open an ice-cream parlor place in the neighborhood where he resides. He has been thinking about this project for a while. He has completed the technical, legal, and economic feasibility studies in order to decide properly. The economic study presented him with the following financial forecasts:
-The project will last 5 years.
-The price of an average creamery ice-cream cone should be $6 per unit. Under the current conditions, it is not expected that the price will change over the life of the project.
-The store is expected to sell 20,000 units the first year, with an annual growth of 5% in the units sold.
-The main variable costs are waffle cones, ice-cream, toppings, whipped cream, chocolate fudge, disposable cups, napkins and plastic spoons. The economic study has also found that the variable costs should be 40% of the sales revenues.
-The main fixed costs are rent ($10,000/year), utilities ($5,000/year), and gross salaries for two part-time employees ($10,000/year). In summary, it is expected that the fixed costs will be $25,000 per year. It is not expected that those fixed costs will change considerably over the life of the project.
-The initial investment has to finance the purchase of the refrigerators, freezers, furniture for customers (tables and chairs), the cash register, and some long-term kitchen tools. It is expected that the capital expenditures should cost $200,000.
-The project has to purchase its first batch of inventory (waffle cones, ice-cream, napkins, etc.) in order to begin selling ice-cream units as soon as the business starts to operate. At the moment of the inventory purchase (t=0), the creamery has not generated any income, because it is not in operation yet, but still it has to pay to its providers in the short-term. The required initial investment in inventory (change net operating working capital) is expected to be $20,000 and it will be fully financed with cash.
-The IRS has stated that the refrigerator and freezer and other long-term assets should be depreciated linearly in 5 years, that is, 20% each year.
-The corporate income tax rate is 40% of profits.
-The residual inventory at the year of closing the project should be sold at the same price of its purchase. Therefore, it does not generate taxable capital gains.
-The salvage value of the capital expenditures at the closing year is $100,000. That is, the market price at which the business can expect to receive for selling the refrigerator, the freezer and the furniture, at the moment of closing the project.
-The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 8%.