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Sales of vegetable dehydrators at Bud Banis' discount department store in St. Louis over the past year are shown below. Management prepared a forecast using a combination of exponential smoothing and its collective judgment for the upcoming four months (March, April, May, and June of 2010).
Month
July 100August 93September 96October 110November 124December 119January 92February 83March 101 120April 96 114May 89 110June 108 108
2009-2010 Unit Sales
July : 100August :93September: 96October: 110November: 124December: 119January :92February: 83March: 101 April: 96 May: 89 June: 108
Forecast Managements Forecast ( only has forecast sales for the four following months)March: 120April:114May:110June:108
(a) Compute MAD and MADE for management's technique
(b) Do management's results outperform (ex have smaller MAD and MAPE than) a naive forecast?
(c) Which forecast do you recommend, based on lower forecast error?
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