Compute a 3-month moving average forecast of demand

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Reference no: EM1377169

Use POM-QM for Windows to solve following problems. The problems are taken from the textbook: Operations Management: Quality and Competitiveness in a Global Environment (5th edition) by Roberta S. Russell and Bernard W. Taylor III.

Problem #11-1 (Page 516)
The Harley Davis motorcycle dealer in the Minneapolis St. Paul area wishes to be able to predict accurately demand for Roadhog Super motorcycle during the next month. From sales records, the dealer has accumulated the data in the table below for the past year:

Month Motorcycle Sales
January 9
Febryary 7
March 10
April 8
May 7
June 12
July 10
August 11
September 12
October 10
November 14
December 16

a. Compute a three-month moving average forecast of demand for April through January (of the next year).

b. Compute a five-month moving average forecast for June through January.

c. Compare the two forecasts computed in parts (a) and (b) using mead absolute deviation (MAD). Which one should the dealer use for January of the next year?

Problem #11-24 (Page 519)
Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a = 0.20 for the demand in Problem #1. Compare this forecast with the three-month moving average computed in Problem #1 (a) using mead absolute deviation (MAD) and indicate which forecast seems to be most accurate.

Note: The "a = 0.20 - the "a" here is a symbol that I can't find on the computer to make it correctly. It looks like the Greek letter "a".

Reference no: EM1377169

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