Reference no: EM131104953
Reconsider Prob. 20.7-4. Ben Swanson now has decided to use the exponential smoothing method to forecast future sales of washing machines, but he needs to decide on which smoothing constant to use. Using an initial estimate of 24, apply this method retrospectively to the 12 months of last year with 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.5.
(a) Compare MAD for these five values of the smoothing constant α.
(b) Calculate and compare MSE for these five values of α.
Prob. 20.7-4
Ben Swanson, owner and manager of Swanson's Department Store, has decided to use statistical forecasting to get a better handle on the demand for his major products. However, Ben now needs to decide which forecasting method is most appropriate for each category of product. One category is major household appliances, such as washing machines, which have a relatively stable sales level. Monthly sales of washing machines last year are shown below.
(a) Considering that the sales level is relatively stable, which of the most basic forecasting methods-the last-value method or the averaging method or the moving-average method-do you feel would be most appropriate for forecasting future sales? Why?
(b) Use the last-value method retrospectively to determine what the forecasts would have been for the last 11 months of last year. What is MAD?
(c) Use the averaging method retrospectively to determine what the forecasts would have been for the last 11 months of last year. What is MAD?
(d) Use the moving-average method with n = 3 retrospectively to determine what the forecasts would have been for the last 9 months of last year. What is MAD?
(e) Use their MAD values to compare the three methods. (f) Do you feel comfortable in drawing a definitive conclusion about which of the three forecasting methods should be the most accurate in the future based on these 12 months of data?
|
Determine the bar sizes and spacing require
: 1. Referring to problem 1, in order to meet a 1-hour fire code rating the slab thickness must be at least 4.00. Based on the information given in problem 1 and with a slab thickness of 4.00".a) Determine the bar sizes and spacing required.
|
|
Management of the jackson manufacturing corporation
: Management of the Jackson Manufacturing Corporation wishes to choose a statistical forecasting method for forecasting total sales for the corporation. Total sales (in millions of dollars) for each month of last year are shown below.
|
|
Defendant had a duty of reasonable care
: Defendant had a duty of reasonable care - Defendant breached that duty and the breach was the actual and proximate cause of the plaintiff's injuries.
|
|
Conflicts of interest
: Identify all parties or entities (a/k/a "stakeholders") who have an interest in assuring that "Conflicts of Interest" do not adversely effect the civil justice system
|
|
Compare mad for these five values of the smoothing constant
: Reconsider Prob. 20.7-4. Ben Swanson now has decided to use the exponential smoothing method to forecast future sales of washing machines, but he needs to decide on which smoothing constant to use. Using an initial estimate of 24, apply this metho..
|
|
Identify other weaknesses not discussed by management
: In the Annual Report, there are several concerns from management. Discuss these concerns, and identify other weaknesses not discussed by management. Then, recommend a course of action addressing these concerns.
|
|
How can agency lead to the lifting of the veil
: How can agency lead to the lifting of the veil? Once the veil is lifted,then the company will be treated as the same legal entity asthe owners of the company
|
|
How does this random variable change as time passes
: Repeat the same exercise with a subdivision of [0, l] into 8 intervals.What is the distribution of log (St / St-Δ) For "small"0
|
|
How do these gains change if the load is changed to 25
: Compute the power gain, the available power gain, and the transducer power gain.
|