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Ryan Braun has just tested positive for Gorilla Growth hormone. You are his lawyer. Given the following information, do you think you could get him off? Explain your reasoning.
P(positive test | drug use) = 0.99
P(positive test | no drug use) = 0.1
P(drug use) = 0.001
Barack Obama decides to weigh in on the Braun Gorilla growth hormone fiasco, which you have rocketed to a national scandal. He suggests that a new test should be administered. If the new test has the same probabilities that the previous one did, does a positive test on this 2nd test change the evidence against Ryan? Explain your reasoning.
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