Calculated the total evidence pr correctly

Reference no: EM13331574

Today is your friend Sally’s birthday. Sally has invited youand ten other friends for a party this evening, and she has said that, as a present, she would like tohave either a CD or a book. Now you would like to give her not what all your other friends will begiving her and so you ask Mary, Chris, and Tom what they are going to bring. You learn thatall three are going to bring her a CD, so you chose to buy a book. How confident can you be thatamong your ten friends there will be one person who brings a book (besides yourself), orput more precisely, what is the probability that given your having asked the three friends thatyour estimate (that only one of your friends brings a book) is correct within 10%? (If you areunsure whether you have calculated the total evidence Pr (E) correctly. It is very close to¼ and you may use this value for Bayes’ rule.)

Reference no: EM13331574

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