Reference no: EM131051764
Question 1
Briefly explain the concepts of independence and dependence between two events.
Question 2
Consider the costs of two project items given in Fig. 2.1, with identical discrete probability distributions. Theyare to be linearly added.
Fig. 2.1
|
|
Item I
|
|
Cost ($M)
|
|
Probability
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.0
|
0.150
|
|
|
16.5
|
0.600
|
|
|
20.0
|
0.250
|
|
|
Item 2
|
|
Cost ($M)
|
|
Probability
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.0
|
|
0.150
|
|
16.5
|
|
0.600
|
|
20.0
|
|
0.250
|
(i) Assume independence between the two items.
1. Calculate the points of the combined probability distribution of total cost of the two items.
2. Calculate mean (expected value), variance and mode (most likely value) of the
consequence of this total cost.
3. Plot the frequency distribution and cumulative probability distribution of the result.
(ii) Assume complete (100%) positive dependence between the costs.
1. Calculate the points of the combined probability distribution of total cost of the two items.
2. Calculate mean (expected value), variance and mode (most likely value) of the consequence of this total cost.
3. Plot the frequency distribution and cumulative probability distribution of the result.
Question 3
(i) Assuming a modified probability distribution as given in Fig. 3.1, in which the cost of the second item is conditionally dependent on the first:
1. Calculate the points of the combined probability distribution of total cost of the two items.
2. Calculate mean (expected value), variance and mode (most likely value) of the consequence of this total cost.
3. Plot the frequency distribution and cumulative probability distribution of the result.
Fig. 3.1
|
Risk 1
|
|
Cost ($M)
|
Probability
|
|
|
|
|
13.0
|
0.150
|
|
|
|
|
16.5
|
0.600
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20.0
|
0.250
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Risk 2
|
|
Cost ($M)
|
Probability
|
|
|
|
|
13.0
|
0.350
|
|
16.5
|
0.650
|
|
13.0
|
0.200
|
|
16.5
|
0.550
|
|
20.0
|
0.250
|
|
13.0
|
0.050
|
|
16.5
|
0.800
|
|
20.0
|
0.150
|
(ii) Comment on the calculations you have made in questions 2 and 3, explaining any key points of similarity or difference between the results (up to 300 words).
(iii) Discuss examples of when, in an engineering or technological project or process,you would expect to find examples of each of these three scenarios (independence between the costs of two items, complete positive dependence between the costs of two items, and conditional dependence of the cost of one item on another) (up to 300 words).
Further Information
Background reading material for this task may be found in Chapman and Ward, Chapter 11. For this question, you can consider the variables as having discrete probabilities (i.e., not continuous).
|
Living organisms to acquire energy and transform
: What energy systems are responsible for living organisms to acquire energy and transform energy into other forms? Briefly describe each system.
|
|
Important document a smallbusiness owner
: A business plan is probably the most important document a smallbusiness owner will ever create. There are nine sections in the business plan outline shown in the chapter. Can you describe at least five of those sections now?
|
|
What differences between financial and managerial accounting
: What are differences between financial and managerial accounting? Why is accounting essential for an organization? Who is an entrepreneur? Why is accounting essential for an entrepreneur?
|
|
Complained of increasing pain
: A 10 year old girl was bitten on the leg by a neighborhood dog and received several stitches 5 days ago. This morning she complained of increasing pain, and her mother noticed that the area around the stitches as red and warm to the touch.
|
|
Calculate the points of combined probability distribution of
: Calculate the points of the combined probability distribution of total cost of the two items. Calculate mean (expected value), variance and mode (most likely value) of the consequence of this total cost. Plot the frequency distribution and cumulative..
|
|
Compute graphically the flowrate and the pump head
: Compute graphically the flowrate and the pump head at the operation conditions - Repeat the question for the case of two identical pumps in series
|
|
Unique human phenomenon
: Menopause is complete when a woman has nothad a menstrual period for a year. Women who are post-menopausalcan no longer get pregnant. Although menopause is a natural processit is a unique human phenomenon that continues to bewilder manypeople.
|
|
Discuss the unemployment rate types issues of australia
: HI5003 Economics for Business Assignment. Unemployment - Discuss the unemployment rate, types, issues, and government policy of Australia and comment unemployment in various states of Australia. You need to specify in different region like NSW, WA..
|
|
The value of motivated entrepreneurs
: With more than 3,500 locations in 44 states, Sonic is the largest chain of drive-in fast-food restaurants in the United States. Unlike other chains, many of Sonic's locations are individually owned and operated.
|