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Scenario analysis
Odion Manufacturers Ltd is evaluating a project that costs $280 000, has a seven-year life and no salvage value. Assume that depreciation is prime-cost to zero salvage over the seven years. Odion requires a return of 10 per cent on such projects. The tax rate is 30 per cent. Sales are projected at 60 000 units per year. Price per unit is $23.80, variable cost per unit is $ 10.52 and fixed costs an $100 000 per year.
a. Calculate the accounting break-even point. What is the degree of operating leverage at the accounting break-even point?
b. Calculate the base case cash flow and NPV. Suppose that you think that the sales projection is accurate only to within 25 per cent. Evaluate the sensitivity of NPV to changes in that projection.
c. Suppose the projections given are all accurate to within 5 per cent except for sales volume, which is accurate only to within 15 per cent. Calculate the NPV under the best and worst cases.
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