Calculate seasonal factors and estimate the forecast

Assignment Help Supply Chain Management

Reference no: EM13224959

Consider monthly demand for the ABC Corporation as shown in the table below. With these demand values, estimate a static (non adaptive) linear regression to identify static values of level, trend, and seasonality. To do this you will need to follow these steps we went through in class: de-seasonalize demand, calculate and run the linear regression for the de-seasonalized demand, calculate the seasonal factors, and estimate the forecast that incorporates these seasonal factors into the de-seasonalized regression.

Please present a table with your results below

Based on the level, trend, and seasonality values that you calculated and the changes that demand has experienced over time, what would be the simplest adaptive (dynamic) forecasting approach would you suggest ABC should follow to predict future demand as accurately as possible? Please answer this question after presenting your results' table below. Please justify this part of your answer conceptually. You do not need to perform any calculations.

Monthly Demand for ABC Corporation
*Sales*	*Year1*	*Year 2*	*Year 3*	*Year 4*	*Year 5*
January	2,000	3,000	2,000	5,000	5,000
February	3,000	4,000	5,000	4,000	2,000
March	3,000	3,000	5,000	4,000	3,000
April	3,000	5,000	3,000	2,000	2,000
May	4,000	5,000	4,000	5,000	7,000
June	6,000	8,000	6,000	7,000	6,000
July	7,000	3,000	7,000	10,000	8,000
August	6,000	8,000	10,000	14,000	10,000
September	10,000	12,000	15,000	16,000	20,000
October	12,000	12,000	15,000	16,000	20,000
November	14,000	16,000	18,000	20,000	22,000
December	8,000	10,000	8,000	12,000	8,000

Total	78,000	89,000	98,000	115,000	113,000

Reference no: EM13224959

Questions Cloud

What would happen to fill rates and cycle service levels : Would fill rates go up, go down, or stay the same? Would cycle service levels go up, go down, or stay the same?

Calculate the most likely radius : For an electron in a hydrogen atom, compute the most likely radius (in Angstroms) of the electron in each of the following states:

Consider a project to develop new software inventory system : Consider a project to develop a new software inventory system. What are some of the resource constraints that would make the project challenging?

Explain reaction between nitrogen oxide and oxygen : the following statements is incorrect for the reaction between nitrogen (II) oxide and oxygen below

Calculate seasonal factors and estimate the forecast : Based on the level, trend, and seasonality values that you calculated and the changes that demand has experienced over time, what would be the simplest adaptive forecasting approach would you suggest ABC should follow to predict future demand as accu..

Identify pros and cons of using the source for recruitment : List five sources of applicants that the organization might turn to when recruiting candidates for the seven open trainer positions. For each source, identify pros and cons of using the source for recruitment.

Explain toluene and acetyl chloride reaction : Why does transferring a F-C Acylation Reaction (ie/ toluene and acetyl chloride reaction) to HCl/ice quench the reaction?

What are the reasons for appraising team performance : What are the reasons for appraising team performance within the engineering sector?

Explain what volume will the gas occupy : A 4.82-L sample of carbon monoxide is collected at 55°C and 0.833 atm. What volume will the gas occupy at 1.05 atm and 25°C?

User Account

All Pages