Reference no: EM131457603

Question:

This is sports data analysis class. please help me out with this assignment.

Background

Bill James created a career projection system he called his "favorite toy," presumably because he liked projecting the career totals of major league baseball players. As usually described, the formula predicts the likelihood of the player achieving a particular goal, such as 500 home runs or 3000 hits.

Procedure

Write a program (or a Jupyter/Python notebook) to predict the career totals for major league baseball players.

The favorite toy formula is described at https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Favorite_toy. The user will enter the name or Lahman id of the player*, the year on which to base the projection, the statistic being projected (you may restrict your program to projecting home runs, hits, and rbi; for additional credit (up to 3 points/10), you may extend your program to the pitching statistics wins, complete games, and strikeouts), and the goal. Your program will calculate other necessary factors - the number needed to reach the goal, the number of seasons remaining for the player, established level, and projected remaining total. Output will be the estimated probability of reaching the goal. You should consider the first caveat listed on the baseball-reference.com description (a player can't have a likelihood greater than .97 * the estimated number of seasons it will take him) but do not worry about whether the player is a "below average offensive player." You may assume the user will enter a base year that gives the player at least three seasons of past data; recover gracefully if the user enters an invalid player (a name or id that does not appear in the data).

You need not develop a sophisticated user interface - you may use simple input statements; if you do that, expect the Lahman abbreviations for statistics (HR for home runs, H for hits, etc). The base year and goal will be integers, and the player name or id will be a string (but don't expect the user to put quotes around it).

Be sure your code is commented well to help me understand your implementation.

Deliverables

Put your program in your upload folder within 5 minutes after class time on the due date.

* You may choose whether to take the name or id but make it clear in the user interface which is expected. If you use name, the name should be the first and last name as recorded in the Lahman master file (Master.csv). You may resolve duplicate names as you see fit but, if only one player with a given name is playing during the base year, use that player.