Reference no: EM131281571

Post on Forecasting Methods

Calculate and answer parts 1 through 4. Include all calculations and spreadsheets in your post. Explain why the moving average method was used instead of another forecasting method. What might be another forecasting method that could prove to be just as useful? Your initial post should be 200-250 words.

The figures below indicate the number of mergers that took place in the savings and loan industry over a 12-year period.

Year	Mergers	Year	Mergers
2000	46	2006	83
2001	46	2007	123
2002	62	2008	97
2003	45	2009	186
2004	64	2010	225
2005	61	2011	240

1. Calculate a 5-year moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012.

2. Use the moving average technique to determine the forecast for 2005 to 2011. Calculate measurement error using MSE and MAD.

3. Calculate a 5-year weighted moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012. Use weights of 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.30, with the most recent year weighted being the largest.

4. Use regression analysis to forecast the number of mergers in 2012.